The hurricanes of 2004 and 2005, and the non-hurricanes of 2006, are continuing to impact the insurance industry in dramatic ways that are critical to insurance agents and brokers, and the impacts seem to be moving from analytic solutions to political solutions. This is not good news for the insurance industry, and it will be up to insurance agents and brokers to finds solutions for distressed clients.
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A recent paper on the economics of hurricanes and their damage (see here and here) by William Nordhaus has two points that should be of concern to insurance practitioners:
Assuming this paper is correct, the prospects for larger concentrated catastrophe (cat) losses are significant even with no change in frequency, which would indicate a need for greater pricing and reduced exposure in cat-exposed regions.
Politicians are embarking on a political solution to address increased insurance costs. One approach is focused on challenging the assumptions that the cat models are using - legislators have requested a peak at their inner workings (see here). The Florida legislature is in special session to find a cost effective solution (see here) which may include shifting more risk from the industry to the state (taxpayors) in return for lower premiums.
The news out of Mississippi (see here), where a federal judge ruled against State Farm in a key wind vs. water case and where the insurer was assessed $2.5 million in punitive damages in addition, is not going to give industry risk takers any comfort. And it appears to be triggering more scrutiny (see here).
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Combined, the results are a high level of risk, excellent profits from a cat-less 2006, and politicians wanting action. For insurance agents and brokers, the result could be more of a crisis for clients as insurers and reinsurers react to the political pressures. Stay tuned.
Update: Not all insurance agents & brokers press is positive: The Palm Beach Post is complaining about higher commissions (see here).
Update 2: See a good post on the special session by RiskProf (here), and a summary article here.