As we noted in a prior post, the mortgage credit market crisis and the resulting real estate decline will have a significant impact on real estate professional liability insurance. Guy Carpenter has two reports (here & here) on the sub-prime mortgage crisis and real estate professional liability litigation.
In one of the reports Guy Carpenter found that the likelihood of a claim against a real estate professional varied based on location. Guy Carpenter has developed the Guy Carpenter Subprime E&O Litigation Index, which is designed to measure, on a geographic basis, factors which influence real estate professional litigation. Key factors that impact the likelihood of a real estate professional liability insurance lawsuit:
- The number of delinquent mortgages and foreclosures
- The concentration of attorneys
- The frequency of litigation pertaining to Truth in Lending and banking laws
One interesting conclusion is that real estate foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies by themselves are not the critical factors in the incidence of real estate professional lawsuits.
The risk of E&O litigation comes from a “perfect storm” that consists of above average rankings in most categories and an extremely high result in one category…Simply having above average scores in each category can put a state at high risk of subprime E&O litigation but will not place it in the top 10. Also, having an extremely high score in one category rarely has a disproportionate influence.
Illinois illustrates how factors can converge to create a climate that favors subprime-related E&O. The state’s foreclosure rate is below the national average, and its subprime mortgage delinquency rate is only slightly above average. But, the ATRA ranks Illinois as a “judicial hellhole,” an assessment that is supported by the fact that there are 0.22 attorneys for every mortgage professional (Bureau of Labor Statistics), nearly 20% higher than the national average of 0.19, and plenty of Truth in Lending and banking litigation. In fact, Illinois’ rates of both Truth in Lending and banking litigation are more than 300% greater than the national average. If you are a plaintiff in Illinois, the legal environment appears to be favorable.
Some of our markets have already seen an increase in claims from real estate professionals including real estate agents, mortgage brokers, escrow agents, and appraisers. As noted before, the key question is the order of magnitude of the problem.
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